Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of wildfires, making rapid and accurate prediction of fire spread essential for effective mitigation and response. Physics-based simulators such as FARSITE offer high-fidelity predictions but are computationally intensive, limiting their applicability in real-time decision-making, while existing deep learning models often yield overly smooth predictions that fail to capture the complex, nonlinear dynamics of wildfire propagation. This study proposes an autoregressive conditional generative adversarial network (CGAN) for probabilistic wildfire spread prediction. By formulating the prediction task as an autoregressive problem, the model learns sequential state transitions, ensuring long-term prediction stability. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed CGAN-based model outperforms conventional deep learning models in both overall predictive accuracy and boundary delineation of fire perimeters. These results demonstrate that adversarial learning allows the model to capture the strong nonlinearity and uncertainty of wildfire spread, instead of simply fitting the pixel average. Furthermore, the autoregressive framework facilitates systematic temporal forecasting of wildfire evolution. The proposed CGAN-based autoregressive framework enhances both the accuracy and physical interpretability of wildfire spread prediction, offering a promising foundation for time-sensitive response and evacuation planning.

Wildfires increasingly threaten human life, ecosystems, and infrastructure, with events like the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles County underscoring the urgent need for more advanced prediction frameworks. Existing physics-based and deep learning models struggle to capture dynamic wildfire spread across both 2D and 3D domains, especially when incorporating real-time, multimodal geospatial data. This paper explores how generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) models-such as GANs, VAEs, and Transformers-can serve as transformative tools for wildfire prediction and simulation. These models offer superior capabilities in managing uncertainty, integrating multimodal inputs, and generating realistic, scalable wildfire scenarios. We introduce a new paradigm that leverages large language models (LLMs) for literature synthesis, classification, and knowledge extraction, conducting a systematic review of recent studies applying generative AI to fire prediction and monitoring. We highlight how generative approaches uniquely address challenges faced by traditional simulation and deep learning methods. Finally, we outline five key future directions for generative AI in wildfire management, including unified multimodal modeling of 2D and 3D dynamics, agentic AI systems and chatbots for decision intelligence, and real-time scenario generation on mobile devices, along with a discussion of critical challenges. Our findings advocate for a paradigm shift toward multimodal generative frameworks to support proactive, data-informed wildfire response.

Deep learning models, especially large Transformers, carry substantial "memory" in their intermediate layers -- an \emph{internal world} that encodes a wealth of relational and contextual knowledge. This work harnesses that internal world for wildfire occurrence prediction by introducing a modular architecture built upon Gemma 3, a state-of-the-art multimodal model. Rather than relying on Gemma 3's original embedding and positional encoding stacks, we develop a custom feed-forward module that transforms tabular wildfire features into the hidden dimension required by Gemma 3's mid-layer Transformer blocks. We freeze these Gemma 3 sub-layers -- thus preserving their pretrained representation power -- while training only the smaller input and output networks. This approach minimizes the number of trainable parameters and reduces the risk of overfitting on limited wildfire data, yet retains the benefits of Gemma 3's broad knowledge. Evaluations on a Moroccan wildfire dataset demonstrate improved predictive accuracy and robustness compared to standard feed-forward and convolutional baselines. Ablation studies confirm that the frozen Transformer layers consistently contribute to better representations, underscoring the feasibility of reusing large-model mid-layers as a learned internal world. Our findings suggest that strategic modular reuse of pretrained Transformers can enable more data-efficient and interpretable solutions for critical environmental applications such as wildfire risk management.

Wildfires pose a significantly increasing hazard to global ecosystems due to the climate crisis. Due to its complex nature, there is an urgent need for innovative approaches to wildfire prediction, such as machine learning. This research took a unique approach, differentiating from classical supervised learning, and addressed the gap in unsupervised wildfire prediction using autoencoders and clustering techniques for anomaly detection. Historical weather and normalised difference vegetation index datasets of Australia for 2005 - 2021 were utilised. Two main unsupervised approaches were analysed. The first used a deep autoencoder to obtain latent features, which were then fed into clustering models, isolation forest, local outlier factor and one-class SVM for anomaly detection. The second approach used a deep autoencoder to reconstruct the input data and use reconstruction errors to identify anomalies. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoders and fully connected (FC) autoencoders were employed in this part, both in an unsupervised way learning only from nominal data. The FC autoencoder outperformed its counterparts, achieving an accuracy of 0.71, an F1-score of 0.74, and an MCC of 0.42. These findings highlight the practicality of this method, as it effectively predicts wildfires in the absence of ground truth, utilising an unsupervised learning technique.

Wildfires pose significant threats to ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide, necessitating advanced predictive methods for effective mitigation. This study introduces a novel and comprehensive dataset specifically designed for wildfire prediction in Morocco, addressing its unique geographical and climatic challenges. By integrating satellite observations and ground station data, we compile essential environmental indicators such as vegetation health (NDVI), population density, soil moisture levels, and meteorological data aimed at predicting next-day wildfire occurrences with high accuracy. Our methodology incorporates state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning algorithms, demonstrating superior performance in capturing wildfire dynamics compared to traditional models. Preliminary results show that models using this dataset achieve an accuracy of up to 90%, significantly improving prediction capabilities. The public availability of this dataset fosters scientific collaboration, aiming to refine predictive models and develop innovative wildfire management strategies. Our work not only advances the technical field of dataset creation but also emphasizes the necessity for localized research in underrepresented regions, providing a scalable model for other areas facing similar environmental challenges.

Global wildfire models play a crucial role in anticipating and responding to changing wildfire regimes. JULES-INFERNO is a global vegetation and fire model simulating wildfire emissions and area burnt on a global scale. However, because of the high data dimensionality and system complexity, JULES-INFERNO's computational costs make it challenging to apply to fire risk forecasting with unseen initial conditions. Typically, running JULES-INFERNO for 30 years of prediction will take several hours on High Performance Computing (HPC) clusters. To tackle this bottleneck, two data-driven models are built in this work based on Deep Learning techniques to surrogate the JULES-INFERNO model and speed up global wildfire forecasting. More precisely, these machine learning models take global temperature, vegetation density, soil moisture and previous forecasts as inputs to predict the subsequent global area burnt on an iterative basis. Average Error per Pixel (AEP) and Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) are used as metrics to evaluate the performance of the proposed surrogate models. A fine tuning strategy is also proposed in this work to improve the algorithm performance for unseen scenarios. Numerical results show a strong performance of the proposed models, in terms of both computational efficiency (less than 20 seconds for 30 years of prediction on a laptop CPU) and prediction accuracy (with AEP under 0.3\% and SSIM over 98\% compared to the outputs of JULES-INFERNO).

This paper presents a novel approach in wildfire prediction through the integration of multisource spatiotemporal data, including satellite data, and the application of deep learning techniques. Specifically, we utilize an ensemble model built on transfer learning algorithms to forecast wildfires. The key focus is on understanding the significance of weather sequences, human activities, and specific weather parameters in wildfire prediction. The study encounters challenges in acquiring real-time data for training the network, especially in Moroccan wildlands. The future work intends to develop a global model capable of processing multichannel, multidimensional, and unformatted data sources to enhance our understanding of the future entropy of surface tiles.

This paper presents the first systematic study of evalution of Deep Neural Network (DNN) designed and trained to predict the evolution of a stochastic dynamical system, using wildfire prediction as a case study. We show that traditional evaluation methods based on threshold based classification metrics and error-based scoring rules assess a DNN's ability to replicate the observed ground truth (GT), but do not measure the fidelity of the DNN's learning of the underlying stochastic process. To address this gap, we propose a new system property: Statistic-GT, representing the GT of the stochastic process, and an evaluation metric that exclusively assesses fidelity to Statistic-GT. Utilizing a synthetic dataset, we introduce a stochastic framework to characterize this property and establish criteria for a metric to be a valid measure of the proposed property. We formally show that Expected Calibration Error (ECE) tests the necessary condition for fidelity to Statistic-GT. We perform empirical experiments, differentiating ECE's behavior from conventional metrics and demonstrate that ECE exclusively measures fidelity to the stochastic process. Extending our analysis to real-world wildfire data, we highlight the limitations of traditional evaluation methods and discuss the utility of evaluating fidelity to the stochastic process alongside existing metrics.

Wildfires have significant impacts on global vegetation, wildlife, and humans. They destroy plant communities and wildlife habitats and contribute to increased emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, methane, and other pollutants. The prediction of wildfires relies on various independent variables combined with regression or machine learning methods. In this technical review, we describe the options for independent variables, data processing techniques, models, independent variables collinearity and importance estimation methods, and model performance evaluation metrics. First, we divide the independent variables into 4 aspects, including climate and meteorology conditions, socio-economical factors, terrain and hydrological features, and wildfire historical records. Second, preprocessing methods are described for different magnitudes, different spatial-temporal resolutions, and different formats of data. Third, the collinearity and importance evaluation methods of independent variables are also considered. Fourth, we discuss the application of statistical models, traditional machine learning models, and deep learning models in wildfire risk prediction. In this subsection, compared with other reviews, this manuscript particularly discusses the evaluation metrics and recent advancements in deep learning methods. Lastly, addressing the limitations of current research, this paper emphasizes the need for more effective deep learning time series forecasting algorithms, the utilization of three-dimensional data including ground and trunk fuel, extraction of more accurate historical fire point data, and improved model evaluation metrics.

Wildfire prediction has become increasingly crucial due to the escalating impacts of climate change. Traditional CNN-based wildfire prediction models struggle with handling missing oceanic data and addressing the long-range dependencies across distant regions in meteorological data. In this paper, we introduce an innovative Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based model for global wildfire prediction. We propose a hybrid model that combines the spatial prowess of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) with the temporal depth of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our approach uniquely transforms global climate and wildfire data into a graph representation, addressing challenges such as null oceanic data locations and long-range dependencies inherent in traditional models. Benchmarking against established architectures using an unseen ensemble of JULES-INFERNO simulations, our model demonstrates superior predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we emphasise the model's explainability, unveiling potential wildfire correlation clusters through community detection and elucidating feature importance via Integrated Gradient analysis. Our findings not only advance the methodological domain of wildfire prediction but also underscore the importance of model transparency, offering valuable insights for stakeholders in wildfire management.